Its time to finally do something about it (no use thinking about wasted time).

I will be including interesting posts that I’ve found elsewhere, plus some unique content that will only be available via the newsletter.

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Several people have asked me my opinion, so here goes.

1. I’ve made a habit of always logging out of Google services before searching. Not that I really care if they have a connection between an actual profile and my searched (after all, they have my IP address anyhow). I just think its none of their business, and as such I’m not going to make it easier for them. Based on what I’ve seen so far of the G+ modifications, I’m going to continue doing just that. The quality of the search results with G+ content included is poor. Google is either going to need to tweak this feature substantially in order to make it usable – or more likely they’ll quietly make it disappear in a few months.

2. A number of people have written about the dangers of excessive filtering – if everything that we see online have been selected for us based on our preferences, how do we ever hear about opposing points of view? Or anything new at all for that matter? I personally feel that the G+ mod is an example of this. One of my friends sent me a search that he did for “jeremy”, and fully half of the front page of results had to do with either my G+ profile, my website, or postings that I’ve made on G+. The issue is that if search results only pertain to your circle, then you’re being isolated from other information.

3. Of course, once he sent me a snapshot of his search results, I immediately did the same search – and was given a completely different set of results. If you and I both search for the same thing, and we see completely different things, how can we compare or share results? Its bad enough that Google already does this sort of thing based on locale (don’t get me started on this one – locale is useful if you’re looking for a restaurant, and stupid if you’re looking for anything else).

4. People don’t usually search for things that they already know. If they do, they’re looking for new info on the topic, not things that they’ve almost certainly already seen.

5. The vast majority of postings on any social site (G+ included) are one-off comments that are specific to a conversational context, or a particular time or place. I’m being generous and ignoring the fact that most posts aren’t even relevant there. Seriously – if I do a search and all I see is out of context posts from people in my circles (few of whom I actually know in real life anyway), how will I be able to find what I’m actually looking for? The signal to noise ratio just reached the babble point.

6. This is really, really bad for the SEO and web marketing crowd. Search just became completely unpredictable. Or maybe Google isn’t stupid – if you want to be found, perhaps paid search just became completely indispensable.

Anyhow, my take on this is that: a) this degrades search quality, b) people are going to avoid using it if possible, and c) its likely to go away soon.

The new theme, in case anybody is interested, is a heavily modified version of WordPress’ Twenty Eleven theme. It takes surprisingly little time to modify it to look completely different than it does out of the box.

I also used a number of typography cues from a web marketing site called Social Triggers. You can see the specific post here. The goal was to make the site easier to read, which I hope this accomplishes.

International Pile of Money - Flickr Creative Commons - epSos.de

One standard piece of advice given to startups is to pick an industry that will permit scale, so that it is at least feasible that somebody in that industry at some point in time could build a large company doing it.

I saw a video on Yahoo Finance a while back where somebody claimed that Apple will be the first trillion dollar company (barring a brief stint by Cisco during DotCom).

Obviously it is hard to tell right now whether that’s true or not, but an industry that can support a trillion dollar company sounds like a good place to start, doesn’t it?

We know that this is possible in consumer electronics then, but what other industries would make this feasible? The goal here is to list industries that are big enough to support large companies (possibly even trillion dollar ones), and yet are still at least somewhat feasible for startups (potentially requiring substantial – but not unfeasible – capital).

I’m going to start with some of the obvious ones, just to get them out of the way. Then I’ll move on to extensions of existing industries that look like they could be large markets, and lastly I’ll throw in some speculative possibilities.

Please feel free to comment if I’ve missed any.

 Existing Industries

1. Resources. There’s few companies in the world that are as large as big mining or petroleum companies. The barriers to entry are significant for startups, but Glencore did it. I also want to thank @EzraSedek for pointing out that wood products (particularly as used in construction) are a huge percentage of GDP in many countries.
2. Pharmaceuticals. Developing a new consumer drug is an expensive proposition. There are lots of other entry points into the pharma industry though, and the technology needed gets cheaper and more accessible every year. A related industry that is still just forming is genetics, which has the potential to be huge.
3. Consumer hardware. The success of several companies in the Maker community seems to indicate that it is feasible to enter this industry as a startup. And its certainly a large (if fickle) market. The primary barrier to entry is probably marketing – selling a few hundred million gizmos is harder than making them.
4. Consumer products. Somewhere in the world, somebody is baking the cookie that will eventually lead to the next P&G.
5. Agriculture. There are any number of reasons why traditional agriculture is frequently a marginal business. There are a number of large-scale companies making money making food though. Everybody has to eat, right? A friend of mine tried a startup in this area a few years back. He had the right idea, but it didn’t succeed. There’s plenty of room for small but scalable ventures here though. Small greenhouses that are close to niche markets are one plausible entry point.
6. Construction. As many management consultants have pointed out, boring, stable industries are the best ones to disrupt. There are a number of companies working on ways to automate the building process, or to invent new and improved construction materials. Process improvements are another potential entry point for startups – there’s a lot of different steps involved in building, starting from design, to the permit process etc. Finding new ways to integrate or separate these steps may be profitable.
7. Financials. They’re not doing so well right now, but will eventually recover. Its easy to overlook how much innovation occurs in the financial sector – a few decades ago, there was no mutual fund industry, for example. Regulation is a major barrier to entry, but can be overcome. Several interesting areas include the “final mile” problem (i.e. how transactions between customers and merchants occur), digital wallets, and digital currency.
8. Robotics. The consumer robotics industry is still fairly small (vacuum cleaners aside), and its hard to say how large it will be. On an industrial level though, robots are already a huge industry (think: Japanese auto industry). Several million new industrial robots per year = scale. Competition and technical skill are the primary barriers to entry.
9. Chemicals. As part of the industrial sector, this is a highly cyclical, generally low margin, high startup cost industry. Could be ripe for innovation? One area that is starting to take off in parts of the world is to locate chemical plants in clusters, such that the waste products of one become the inputs of another. Chemical production through biotech is another.
10. Water filtration and environmental reclamation. Delivery of clean drinking water is already a huge industry (although nationalized in many places). Many countries in drier climes are investing huge sums of money to build saltwater reclamation plants or closed cycle systems for their cities. Startups would probably best focus on better and cheaper ways to filter water. Environmental reclamation, particularly brownfield reclamation is a large and growing sector. Again, finding ways to reduce cost is a good place to start.
11. Marketing/sales/advertising. Its a question whether this should be on the list – this is a large industry, but its total size worldwide is probably less than a trillion dollars, and it is highly fragmented. On the other hand, there isn’t a large barrier to entry.
12. Education. I’m not certain about market size, but world-wide there are still many places with literacy rates under 50%, so this is going to be a growth industry for a long time. In developed nations, there is a competitive battle to become more educated, in order to secure better jobs. Delivery of education is a hot area for startups right now (I’m working with one company in this area).
13. Software / IT. I’ve got this down at the bottom of the list because there is so much overlap between software and virtually any other business model. As a certain well-known individual has claimed, software is eating the world. Or large chunks of it, anyhow.
14. Other: Feel free to let me know!

Extensions of Existing Industries

Most of the following exist to some extent already. In most cases, the size of the market is still relatively small, but they have huge potential.

1. Micro-scale manufacturing. There are a number of cheap 3D printers on the market already (RepRap, MakerBot and many others), but this is still a very new industry. The potential is here to completely revolutionize the manufacturing of virtually all consumer products though.
2. Next-gen telecom. Ad-hoc wireless mesh networks are rapidly becoming feasible. When they appear, the traditional telecom companies will need to adapt or die.
3. Social everything. We think of social media as being fairly established, but it is really still in its infancy. Right now it has a firm foothold in how people talk to each other, and how they share and comment on content. Two areas that have barely been touched yet:
• Business processes. Yes, SalesForce has a nice P/E ratio. What I’m thinking of is a situation where your accounting software and ERP are integrated into Facebook; where you and your supplier’s supply chains are completely integrated through social media, such that your staff and theirs, and your customers can all collaborate transparently to build your product. Right now the only efforts I’m aware of in this area are job hunting and rudimentary business networking (done by people who only understand job hunting).
• Creativity. I’m working on several projects in this area right now, so I have to be careful what I discuss online! Current social media is great for sharing content, but lousy for working together to make it.

New Industries / Blue-sky

1. Nanotechnology. The last few years have seen the first “real” nanotech products, primarily focused on new materials (fabrics, paints etc). Right now the startup costs are unfeasibly high, but eventually the relevant equipment will become cheap off-the-shelf commodities, and then the real boom will begin.
2. Space mining. Currently it is economically unfeasible to mine asteroids for resources. The key to bear in mind though is that an average sized asteroid contains several trillion dollars worth of minerals. The first company to succeed will essentially have complete control over the price of virtually all metals, to the extent that they can then create a “moat” around their business by undercutting the profit margins of any potential competitors. Once space hardware becomes off-the-shelf, expect this industry to become hot.
3. Replacement for existing marketing methods. There are two current methods for letting potential customers know about your business: broadcast (i.e. a newspaper ad, a TV spot, or a banner ad) and targeted (i.e. Google AdWords, YellowPages etc). Eventually somebody will come out with a better model for matching up businesses with customers. What that will look like is anybody’s guess.
4. The next “X”. Be it Google or Facebook or any other big web company, eventually something will come along that is more interesting or works better. The Next Facebook could be Facebook itself in a future iteration, or it could be something else entirely.

Have I missed any industries? Am I completely off-base about some of the ones I’ve listed? Please let me know!

From Flickr Creative Commons - emilymcmc

I’ve briefly mentioned the Great Pacific Garbage Patch here before. It consists of a vast quantity of particulate plastic, floating in the middle of the Pacific Ocean (there’s similar ones in other oceans too).

There’s a lot of people out there who have come up with ideas for cleaning it up, including several with ideas to build floating islands out of recycled plastic.

I just came across something that might be easier and cheaper to implement.

There’s a substance called pykrete which is ice mixed with sawdust (or some other kind of fibre). You may have seen the episode of Mythbusters where they fired bullets at it (they bounced off) and then built a boat of the stuff.

Materials like pykrete can be made out of a wide variety of substances (in this case small bits of plastic) suspended in water and then frozen; the results can be stronger than concrete, and (obviously) lighter than water. The only problem is keeping it cold.

My idea is as follows:

• Build a mold in the shape of a pipe. Use plastic particles dredged out of the ocean and filtered pure water to make a pykrete pipe from the mold. The result will look like a PVC pipe (except colder).
• Freeze the pipe into the middle of a larger cube of pykrete.
• Join frozen blocks together so that the pipes connect.
• Attach a pumping station and refrigeration unit, and run low temperature brine through the pipes to keep the whole thing cold.
• The pumps can possibly be run by solar panels sitting on top.
• Once the platform is large enough (and thick enough), put on an insulating layer and top it off with a few meters of topsoil. Then build on it. Or plant crops.

I haven’t looked at this in detail, but I think it can be made into a self-sustaining system fairly easily, once the platform is large enough to support a water recycling system, a refrigeration unit, a pump, and something to power it all. I don’t think it would be particularly expensive to bootstrap a project like this either.

For reference: there’s estimated to be around 5kg of particulate plastic per square kilometer of water in the Gyre. A boat with a large dredge and a small water filtration system could make a few big blocks of pykrete per day. Within a few weeks, it might be possible to build a big enough platform to move all of the equipment over, and to continue operations from it instead.

• The Polish IT security magazine hakin9 has published an article of mine on the topic of BitCoins. I believe there’s a free download off their website. The magazine is published in English. I don’t speak Polish, sorry!
• I’m working on several mid-length posts for the blog, but have been very busy with work the past few weeks. Upcoming topics include an update to the “how to make money online” post from 2009, a few thoughts on SEO (yeah, I don’t usually like talking about that), a couple of interesting projects I’ve been working on, and some more business strategy stuff. Feel free to request topics as well.

Aside from blocking some of its competitors from making the same purchase, this has some interesting strategic implications. In recent years, Microsoft’s profit has come from two places – games (i.e. XBox), which is what the consumer notices, and the enterprise market (which it dominates).

Look for Microsoft to do three things (aside from increasing advertising) to fully utilize this purchase:

1) Expand Skype’s enterprise functionality – Skype has some teleconferencing capabilities, but they could definitely be improved (I can think of several competing products that are superior in this area). In addition, better integrating this functionality into the Outlook / Exchange / Sharepoint stack could be very beneficial for corporate customers. This might imply that they eventually kill off some of their in-house software, i.e. Live.

2) Improve Skype’s APIs – allowing games to use embedded voice and video chat via APIs could be a powerful enhancement for the XBox platform.

3) Bring back Skype for Windows Mobile (which also makes sense vis-a-vis Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia).

Please note: the author does not currently hold a position in GOOG, and is not making a recommendation regarding other people’s investment activities!

It occurs to me though that it would be very useful if I could pay real world bills (think groceries or mortgage) directly using virtual currency.

Before that can happen, there would need to be a lot more transparency (i.e. no grocery will accept magicbuxx if they don’t know how much they are worth, or whether they can in turn get value out of them), and a whole lot of big institutions like banks and payment portals would need to sign on too. There would also need to be physical mechanisms that can transfer the payments (i.e. the new mobile payment technology that is slowly being adopted by cellphone manufacturers would be helpful).

I wonder how we can make that happen. It would be very nice to be able to go to a restaurant with a pile of Facebook credits, or Bitcoins.