How Facebook can win in mobile

Lots of speculation that Facebook is going to try (again) to build a mobile phone. I understand why they feel this is necessary – they’re already losing ad revenue due to people accessing the site via mobile apps – but as many others have commented, this is unlikely to work (and could cost them billions of dollars in the process).

Here’s a simple alternate plan for how they could win mobile revenue, and create a mobile platform, without building any hardware:

1. Extend their existing mobile app so that it allows users to run existing Facebook applications from within it.

2. Create new tools to allow app developers to take advantage of this capability. Creating mobile apps is still a lot of hard work, and walled gardens like iOS make it hard for developers, so a clean, cross-browser-compatible, Facebook app-based mobile platform could really help developers. Plus if its cleanly integrated into the mobile app, there’s no reason why users who are already utilizing it won’t adopt it as well.

3. Build out their existing ad network to target these new capabilities.

The above would be a lot of hard work, but IMHO it would have a much better chance of success, and would cost a fraction of what they would spend buying up hardware companies. Plus it plays well to their existing strength in platform development.

Update: Actually, I can think of one strategic reason why Facebook would want to get into the phone business, although I’m not certain that it is sufficient. If such a phone contained near field payment technology, then Facebook Credits could be used at the “final mile”. Such an approach would probably imply the purchase of a company like Square.

The (slightly misanthropic) Rules of HTML Compliance – Part 3

This is the third and final part of the series. If you haven’t read the other parts, you can find them here and here. The following is a heavily edited version of an internal document that I wrote a number of years ago to try to standardize internal web development. Continue reading

The (slightly misanthropic) Rules of HTML Compliance – Part 2

If you haven’t read part one, this is a highly edited version of an internal document, on the topic of creating a company standard for html, css and javascript work, with some of the (justified) language toned down.

Part 1 of the post may be found here.

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Can Yahoo! be turned around?

Again with the CEO? Seriously Yahoo!?

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Whenever I’ve spoke with former Yahoo! employees in the past few years, the overriding theme seems to be anger and disappointment. One does not feel emotional in this way about a company that cannot achieve; it is the mismanagement, lost opportunities and loss of direction of a team that used to consider itself a world-leader that results in such a temperament.

The question remains though, regardless of what happens in the near-term with their current CEO. Can (or should) Yahoo! be turned around, or should it be torn apart and sold for scrap? Continue reading

The (slightly misanthropic) Rules of HTML Compliance – Part 1

The following post(s) are edited from a document that I wrote a few years ago to try and provide a consistent standard for HTML and CSS submitted by contractors for projects that my company was working on. At the time we found that we were spending a significant chunk of time on rework, in order to make things function properly across different browser types, and the goal was to reduce this, and simultaneously improve quality and customer satisfaction. I’ve edited things a bit, as the original was written with a sarcastic (and occasionally profane) tone that is slightly embarrassing in retrospect (although entirely necessary at the time). Continue reading

On simplicity

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It seems like a strange idea – that people can build things that are so complex that they no longer understand them fully. It is more common in the realm of large projects where thousands of people work together on a single goal (think of the Space Shuttle, with its millions of moving parts), but it also happens on occasion in software development.

I can think of a handful of projects that I have worked on that have reached this point. One in particular, although the number of lines of code is not exceptionally large, has so many moving parts that it is actually impossible to determine in advance what effect any given change will have on its operation. Modifying its core functionality becomes a delicate game of trial and error. Continue reading

First time pitching

I spoke yesterday with Frank Chen at Andreessen Horowitz.

It wasn’t a “real” pitch. More like a “here’s my idea, now am I a complete idiot or should I go and make a real pitch” pitch.

The information I got back was invaluable. Some of it may only apply to A/H, but I think there’s a lot of general purpose detail here. Take notes.

1. A/H’s first concern is defensible intellectual property. If there’s real hard technology work going on, that’s good. On the other hand, a quick mobile app that somebody can churn out a copy of quickly, isn’t. It isn’t clear to me whether having a lot of existing traffic trumps this consideration – i.e. something that is easy to duplicate, but is already a market leader.

2. Total addressable market. That doesn’t mean “how big is the overall sector market”. Instead, they want companies to have a very good idea of what specific sector of the market they’re actually targeting, its size (both number of customers and annual dollar value), and also the likelihood of a specific potential customer in this market segment actually making a purchase. I think this means real market research, or minimally going out and getting anecdotal evidence from prospects. A/H look for a minimum addressable market of $100 million per year.

3. Reputation. VCs are extremely sensitive to their reputation. That means they won’t touch any company with even the slightest possibility of tarnishing their rep, regardless of profitability. Frank gave me an example of an online pawn broker that pitched them recently. Their whole justification is creating transparency for a sector that has a justifiably bad reputation – but A/H couldn’t touch them due to their being in that market. I believe this is because VCs primarily raise their funds from large institutional investors, such as teacher’s pension funds. That means they need to report back to their investors with regards to their portfolio, which in turn forces them to be somewhat conservative on this topic. If there’s any question whatsoever, they won’t invest. Frank also told me something interesting – this is often not the case with large angel investors. He recommended pitching to them first in this sort of situation.

4. Size of investment. Every VC is obviously different here. It sounds like A/H’s sweet spot is to make investments that are at least $10 million in size, and which are likely to return at least $100 million. I’m guessing that their having raised nearly $3 billion in the last couple of years is going to push their minimum investment higher, in order for them to achieve a decent rate of return. This will eventually push them out of certain kinds of industries, almost by default.

Interesting, eh?

This is great info to keep in mind when actually writing a pitch “deck”.

The other thing I’ve noticed is that VCs by nature are really friendly people – they actually like chatting with people, and they rely on third-party referrals to build their “funnel”. Frank was almost effusive – after we discussed my idea, he repeatedly asked if there was anything else he could help me with, and said that he would love to hear of any other ideas that I come up with in the future. This makes sense in retrospect, but its a different experience than I’ve had with other kinds of high profile (and very busy) people in the past.

All in all, a fascinating experience.

More Free Business Models

Yes, I know – ideas don’t count for much these days. Continue reading

Why I don’t upgrade my cellphone

True story: a while back I walked into a cellphone store. The rep behind the counter was yapping with a couple of her friends. After fifteen minutes of patiently waiting, I asked her if I could ask a few questions about their phone line-up. She brusquely informed me that she was busy, and then went back to chatting with her friends about clothing. I walked out.

There are thirteen cellphone stores in the mall by my house. I counted. Each one uses slightly different combinations of primary colors in their logos. What I have to say here could apply to any of them, and I’m not going to name names. None of them are typically busy either, so I find this confounding. Continue reading

First batch of Wahooly startups

Wahooly is still working on releasing their Beta, but they’ve posted up a list of the first batch of startups, and I went and kicked the tires, so to speak. Here are some first impressions. Continue reading